Definitions of Group Decision, Vote & Election Accuracy & Transparency

Definitions:

An election:  A recorded group formal choice where each person in the group registers a choice to a question. Election can be for a person, or an issue.

A vote: (plural) A recorded group formal decision where each person in the group registers a choice to a question.

A poll: This terms is used by UK English to mean the same as a vote (plural).

A survey: A recorded group choice where each person in the group registers a choice to a question.

Court Jury Verdict: Same as a vote

Supreme Court Decision: Same as a vote

Accuracy: Is the distance of a result to the target in percent. (This definition is based on the book "A Mathematical Foundation For Politics And Law").

Justice: Accuracy in deciding. Decision accuracy. (To be just is to be accurate in deciding, where accuracy is mathematically well-defined and measurable).

Election Accuracy

Election Accuracy: Here are issues surrounding the accuracy of an election:

• Voter fraud

• Officials' fraud

• Vote recording machines' accuracy

• Voting method

• Voting process accuracy

• Machine or human vote computation accuracy,

• Vote Accuracy: accuracy of the vote result percentages when compared to a target such as a random vote or to ideal vote support.

Let us review the importance of each of these factors based on their contribution to election accuracy, using an example of a fictitious election:

• Voter fraud: 3% error contribution to the election results

• Officials' fraud: 2% error contribution to the election results

• Vote recording machines' accuracy: 0% error contribution to the election results

• Voting method: 0% error contribution to the election results

• Voting process accuracy: 2% error contribution to the election results

• Machine or human vote computation accuracy: 0% error contribution to the election results

• Vote Accuracy: (accuracy of the vote result percentages when compared to a target such as a random vote or to ideal vote support) if the vote was 60% "yes" support versus 40% "no" opposition, the the Vote Accuracy = 60% - 40% = 20% which makes the Vote Error is 80%: 80% error contribution to the election results

We can see that the most important factor effecting election accuracy or a vote's accuracy is the vote percentages factor with its 80% vote error contribution. In light of this fact, we can almost ignore all the other factors or prioritize these factors by first focusing on the Vote Error of 80% computed from the Vote Accuracy equation. (So you can chitchat about election accuracy and election fraud for a long time for amusement and to pass time, but if you want to deal with the core of the the election accuracy problem, you have to use the very simple Vote Accuracy equation Yes% - No% to find out the error. 

Because the Simple Vote Accuracy equation = Yes% - No%, and the Vote Error = 100% - Vote Accuracy, substituting, we get:

Vote Accuracy equation = Yes% - No%, 

Vote Error = 100% - Vote Accuracy

Vote Error = 100% - (Yes% - No% )

Vote Error = 100% - Yes% + No% 

Since Yes% = 100% -No%, we substitute for Yes% and get

Vote Error = 100% - ( 100% - No%) + No% 

Vote Error = 100% - 100% + No% + No% 

Vote Error = 2 x No% !!!! A very simple equation to remember. Therefore:

Simple Vote Error =  2 x No%

Example: an election vote with 60% "yes" to 40% "no" has a Vote Error = 2 x 40% = 80%

Election Accuracy is different from vote accuracy in that election accuracy involves many factors as outlined above, while the vote accuracy is a single factor in election accuracy, but is the most important factor. Vote accuracy can be defined by the mathematical representation of Accuracy = V~ - R~  where V~ is the vote distribution and R~ is the Associated Vote Random Distribution. (See our website for the exact mathematical equation).

Vote Accuracy synonyms : Vote accuracy has the related terms vote merit, or vote legitimacy, or Vote representation power. When the vote is about a proposed law or referendum, the terms "merit" or "legitimacy" maybe descriptive, such as in "This law has no merit", while when the vote is about a person, the words "legitimacy" or "representation power" maybe descriptive, such as "this congressman has a representation power of 5%". 

Group Accuracy Number: A term that embodies the computation of the accuracy of a group composed of many elected members, such as a parliament, congress or senate. In this case, the words "legitimacy" or "representation power" maybe descriptive, such as "this congressman no legitimacy" or " this congress has a representation power of 2%".  Group accuracy is computed by using the accuracy equation to compute the accuracy of many members instead of a single person. Example: If congress member A has accuracy of 8% (computed from the results of the vote that elected him/her to office), congress member B has accuracy of 80%, and congress member C ... etc, statistical equations are used to add the results to give the institution a single accuracy number.

Transparency in recording an official vote: 

When a vote or an election is held, These are the minimum factors that should be recorded:

• Percent of "yes" voters

• Percent of "no"voters

• Number of voters

• Vote Accuracy number, based on the Vote Accuracy equation = V~ - R~ = ( Y e s % − N o % ) − 2 x MOE , etc.. (See the calculators on this website)

• Vote Error number = 100% - Vote Accuracy Number

• The threshold accuracy number that a vote must cross to be adopted (such as 60% accuracy, or 90% accuracy etc. ). This number should be in accuracy percent and not in vote percent, where saying the threshold is 67% _majority_ would be an improper threshold, but saying 67% _accuracy_ would be a proper threshold.  

• The equation used to measure Vote Accuracy is recorded

• The cost of error in damage to a single person as a result of this vote

•  The total cost  of error to the effected population, based on the Vote Error number and per-person cost -of-error. 

• For a small group of voters, such as a congress, the individual names of the voters and their vote choice, and the voter accuracy number if this person is an elected official.

• If the group is a formal group (such as a Congress, Senate, Congress, Supreme Court) the Group Accuracy Number should be recorded at the time of the vote.

Transparency Of An Elected Official Or A Group Information: 

It is important that an elected official places on his office door or a highly visible location his the Vote Accuracy that brought him to office. Example: A congressman would place on his office door "Elected with Vote Accuracy = 5%, or wear a badge to this effect. 

Similarly for a group. Example: At the entrance door to the congress building, a sign would have on it "This congress was elected with a Vote Accuracy = 12%". 

Same for a Supreme Court, etc.